Checking billy barr’s snow log…
This is one of 12 scenarios the Centennial Campaign 2027 explores. It is an AI-generated planning artifact, not a forecast or an RMBL institutional commitment. The contingencies it depends on are named in its plausibility-caveats and (where applicable) upside or downside conditions sections. See the browse page for the full set, including the alternative scenarios.
Centennial Balance assumes the campaign comes in at mid-range, and that RMBL responds by doing several things moderately well rather than betting everything on one. The marmot study passes its seventy-fifth year during this period. The long meadow phenology series and the snowmelt-driven plant work continue without lapse. Alongside that stewardship, RMBL grows a small data team that can read a century of records at scales prior generations could not attempt, and builds the savings and broader funding base that protect its independence through funding shocks. Roughly fifty-five percent of the work is continuity; the rest is data capacity and institutional resilience. The scenario forgoes new atmospheric instrumentation, broad community co-production work, and large mechanistic experimental platforms. It tests something specific about donors: whether a three-part bet — records, data, independence — is more compelling than a single anchor. It asks the institution to hold a balanced portfolio together without letting any one part starve the others.
---
At mid-range magnitude, the campaign doesn't have to choose: it protects the long records, grows in-house capacity to read them, and builds the institutional savings that protect independence. The scenario tests whether a balanced three-frontier portfolio at mid- magnitude is more strategically coherent than a single-anchor commitment — and whether donors respond to "do several things moderately well" as a campaign thesis.
This scenario takes as its starting point a mid-range campaign and a working assumption that RMBL does not have to choose between protecting its longest records, building the capacity to read them in new ways, and shoring up the financial independence that keeps both possible. The campaign is substantial but not at the upper end of what RMBL might raise. The bet is that a balanced three-part portfolio is more strategically coherent than a single anchor, and that donors will respond to a campaign that promises to do several important things moderately well.
Federal science funding stays tight throughout the period. The contraction that has already affected RMBL-associated researchers does not lift; it stabilizes as the new baseline. RMBL's independence as a nonprofit field station becomes more visible as a feature, not just an organizational fact. The basin's longest records — the marmot study, the meadow phenology series, the snowmelt-driven plant work — are entering decades where any lapse would be irreparable, and the seventy-fifth year of the marmot work arrives in 2038. AI tools mature steadily enough that a century of accumulated field notebooks, plot data, and observer records becomes newly readable at scales prior generations could not attempt.
The scenario's balance is deliberate. About fifty-five percent of the work is continuity stewardship. The rest is roughly split between growing RMBL's small data team and building the savings and broader funding base that protect independence. None of these three commitments is large enough on its own to dominate the campaign's identity. The discipline the scenario asks of RMBL is to hold the balance — to let each commitment do its work without letting any one starve the others.
The campaign launches and reaches its mid-range target by 2028 or 2029. RMBL's leadership and board negotiate the split between immediate stewardship needs and the longer-horizon savings that protect independence. The first new data-team hires arrive — a data scientist and a research archivist working with the existing geospatial staff. They begin the multi-year work of digitizing field notebooks and plot records from across the basin's long studies, starting with the marmot records and the meadow phenology series. Stewardship arrangements for the long records are formalized with the guest scientists who carry them, including succession planning that the next phase will test. Modest renovation at RMBL365 in Crested Butte creates year-round workspace for the data and archival work. The operating reserves grow more slowly than some on the board want, because the immediate stewardship needs are real and arrive first. By 2030 the balanced portfolio is visible: records are intact, the data team is small but real, and the reserves are growing.
The marmot study passes its seventy-fifth year. The seventy-fifth-year milestone is marked quietly — a symposium, a public-facing piece in the Knowledge Commons, partnership with the guest scientists who have carried the work — and the records themselves continue without lapse. The digitization work matures: by 2034 a substantial fraction of the basin's archival records are machine-readable, and the first wave of retrospective syntheses using AI tools appears in the literature, led by guest scientists working with the RMBL data team. The data team itself has grown to four or five people. The savings reach a level that meaningfully buffers RMBL against a federal funding shock. A test of this comes in the early 2030s when a competing institution loses a major federal program; RMBL's reserves and broader funding base let it absorb a partial transfer of basin-relevant work without scrambling. The balanced portfolio holds. The scenario's central tension — that no one commitment dominates — also begins to show: some donors and some researchers want RMBL to lean harder into one of the three. The leadership holds the balance.
The investments compound. The long records, intact and increasingly machine-readable, become the empirical backbone for a generation of climate-attribution work the basin could not have supported in 2026. The data team is now central to how guest scientists work in the basin; it is not large, but it is mature, and its tools and methods are widely used. The savings and broader funding base have changed RMBL's relationship to federal funding shocks: contractions still hurt, but they no longer threaten institutional continuity. RMBL365 has become the working home of the year-round data and archival work. By 2040 none of the three commitments has dominated; each has done its quiet work. The institutional question that arrives at the end of the horizon is what the next campaign should look like — whether the balanced posture should continue, or whether the conditions have shifted enough to warrant a sharper bet on one of the frontiers the scenario chose to let mature.
If you bring your work to RMBL during this period, the long records you depend on are intact and increasingly machine-readable. The marmot study passes its seventy-fifth year. The meadow phenology series and the snowmelt-driven plant work continue without lapse. A small data team supports retrospective analysis at scales that were not possible a decade earlier — if your work involves reading a century of basin records, the tools and the digitized archives are there. The atmospheric and watershed instrumentation that SAIL brought is maintained through partner institutions rather than expanded by RMBL itself. New mechanistic experimental platforms are not built during this period. The basin you encounter is one where stewardship and digital capacity have compounded quietly, and where the institutional independence that lets you ask the questions you want to ask is more visible than it was at the start.
RMBL through this period feels much as it did at the start, but stronger underneath. The seasonal rhythm in Gothic continues. The technical core has grown by a few people — data scientists, a research archivist — working with the existing geospatial and GIS staff. RMBL365 in Crested Butte is the year-round working home of the data and archival team. The savings have grown to a level that buffers the institution against federal funding shocks without changing what RMBL is. Staff feel less precarious. The relationship to the guest-scientist community is unchanged in shape but deeper in the tools available. No single dramatic transformation marks the period; the institution at 2040 is the institution at 2026, intact and quietly more capable, with the financial resilience to keep being itself through whatever the next horizon brings.
Your contribution joins a campaign that bets on doing several important things moderately well rather than one thing maximally. It is part of what protects the basin's longest records as the marmot study passes its seventy-fifth year. It is part of what grows a small data team that can finally read a century of field notebooks and plot records at scales prior generations could not attempt. It is part of what builds the savings and broader funding base that let RMBL stay independent through whatever happens to federal science budgets. None of these is dramatic. Together they leave RMBL stronger at the end of the horizon than at the start — the records intact, the capacity to read them mature, and the institution more resilient. The invitation is to be part of a campaign whose value compounds quietly across decades.
This scenario assumes a mid-range campaign reaches its target on a timeline that lets the three commitments grow together. It assumes donors respond to a balanced three-part bet — records, data capacity, independence — rather than insisting on a sharper single-frontier campaign thesis. This is the central characteristic risk of the scenario: a balanced portfolio may read as diffuse to donors who want a clear story. A campaign that tries to do three things moderately well may end up doing all three less well than a sharper-focused campaign would do one. The scenario also assumes federal funding stabilizes rather than contracting further. It assumes AI tools mature on a timeline that makes the data investment pay off within the horizon. It assumes RMBL's leadership and board can hold the balance for fifteen years without one commitment crowding the others — a discipline the scenario takes for granted but that real institutions find hard to sustain. The structural blind spot is that the scenario describes the basin largely through its existing research traditions. If basin questions reorganize around something the current frontiers do not capture — a new contaminant, a new ecological threshold, a new political constraint — the balanced portfolio may be less responsive than a campaign built around a single, sharper bet would be. The scenario also gives less attention than it could to community priorities and to the partnership work that other scenarios in this set foreground; readers should weigh that omission against their own sense of what RMBL needs to be.
---
Speculative. Lower resolution than the primary horizon.
By 2050 the marmot study is approaching its ninetieth year, the meadow phenology series has become one of the longest continuous plant records anywhere, and retrospective syntheses of basin records using mature AI tools are routine. The data team that started small in the late 2020s is by then an established part of how the basin's science gets done. The savings and broader funding base, built quietly through the campaign period, have buffered RMBL through at least one further federal contraction and probably more. None of these changes are dramatic when seen one at a time. Taken together they have left RMBL stronger than it was at the start of the campaign period — the records intact, the capacity to read them mature, and the institution more resilient. What the next campaign looks like depends on conditions that are not yet visible. The work this scenario funded made it possible for that next campaign to be designed from a position of strength rather than scarcity.
In 2040, RMBL matters because it remained the field station it had been — continuity at its core — while quietly becoming better at extracting meaning from a century of records and more financially resilient than at the start of the period. None of these changes are dramatic, but together they leave RMBL stronger.