Counting marmots…
This is one of 3 scenarios the Downside Companion Set explores. It is an AI-generated planning artifact, not a forecast or an RMBL institutional commitment. The contingencies it depends on are named in its plausibility-caveats and (where applicable) upside or downside conditions sections. See the browse page for the full set, including the alternative scenarios.
This scenario imagines a decade in which public attitudes shift durably against environmental science. Across multiple administrations, climate denial dominates federal and state politics. Agencies that long partnered with basin researchers — USGS, the Forest Service climate programs, EPA, NOAA — face program cuts, scientist relocations, and suppression of findings. Foundation interest in environmental science cools. The campaign closes below the realistic floor, with operating conditions further strained by political pressure. RMBL leans into what remains durable. The marmot demographic study and the meadow phenology series continue. Partnerships with tribal natural-resources offices deepen, because tribal sovereignty does not depend on federal continuity. Quiet work with the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District holds. The translation function narrows but survives. The scenario asks donors and the institution to defend RMBL's independence as the working condition that keeps unrestricted basin science possible. It is a smaller RMBL, more clearly itself.
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A durable shift in public attitudes against science legitimacy reshapes the conditions of basin work across the period. Climate denial dominant in federal and state politics across multiple administrations delegitimizes environmental research in policy contexts. Federal agencies relevant to basin work — USGS, Forest Service climate programs, EPA, NOAA — face sustained hostility: programs cut, scientists' work suppressed or relocated, agency- RMBL partnerships disrupted. Foundation appetite for environmental science contracts. RMBL's translation work becomes politically vulnerable. The institution responds by leaning into what remains viable: Conservancy District partnerships continue quietly, tribal nation natural-resources offices become one of the few durable channels for science-policy integration (and partnerships deepen accordingly), and basic-research continuity is protected as the asset that political conditions cannot reach. The scenario tests what institutional independence is actually for — and demonstrates that the answer is keeping basin science possible when external conditions narrow.
Depends on: (1) sustained public-attitude shift against environmental science legitimacy — not driven by a single election, but compounding across multiple cycles; (2) federal hostility to climate-relevant agency work persisting at sufficient scale that USGS, Forest Service climate, EPA, and NOAA partnerships meaningfully degrade; (3) state-level political environments varying — some states remain hospitable to basin science (Colorado itself does), others restrict; (4) tribal nations and water conservancy districts retain their authority and willingness to partner; the scenario depends on these channels remaining viable; (5) foundation funding for environmental science contracts but does not collapse — some foundations sustain support, allowing RMBL to maintain a smaller but viable program; (6) RMBL itself remains politically unencumbered by Colorado's relative hospitability to environmental science — the scenario does not assume Colorado follows a national pattern of restriction.
This scenario takes as its starting condition a durable shift in public attitudes against environmental science. The shift is not a single election but a pattern across administrations and across states. Federal agencies relevant to basin work — USGS, the Forest Service climate programs, EPA, NOAA — face sustained hostility. Programs are cut. Scientists are relocated or leave. Findings are suppressed or rewritten. Agency partnerships that basin researchers had relied on for decades become unreliable or disappear.
Foundation appetite for environmental science contracts in parallel. Donors who once gave generously to climate work redirect attention to causes that feel more politically defensible to their boards. The Centennial Campaign closes below the realistic floor. Operating conditions are further strained by the political pressure on the work itself.
RMBL does not collapse. It leans into what remains durable. The long records on the slopes above Gothic and in the meadows continue, because they are protocol-bound, modestly funded, and protected by their own scientific weight. The partnerships that survive are the ones whose authority does not depend on federal continuity. Tribal nation natural-resources offices, operating from sovereignty of their own, become one of the few channels through which basin science still reaches policy. The Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District continues quietly. RMBL's independence — its nonprofit status, its responsiveness to guest scientists rather than federal program officers — becomes a more important asset than it had ever been. The scenario tests what that independence is actually for.
The early phase is defined by recognition and triage. By 2027 it becomes clear that federal partnerships once treated as durable cannot be relied on. Several long-standing agency collaborations end or shrink. Some basin scientists lose grants mid-cycle. RMBL leadership and the board make a hard decision in 2028: the campaign will protect what is hardest to replace rather than spread thin. The marmot demographic study and the meadow phenology series are placed at the center. Operating reserves are built. The data team is held at current scale rather than grown. Plans for a larger integrated observatory are shelved. RMBL365 holds reduced winter hours and becomes the meeting place for the partnerships that remain. Conversations with tribal natural-resources offices deepen during this period, often initiated by tribal partners themselves seeking science venues outside federal channels. The Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District relationship continues. By 2030 a leaner shape is visible, chosen rather than fallen into.
The middle phase tests whether the choices hold. Federal contraction does not reverse. State-level pressure on environmental research intensifies in some Western states. Some guest scientists from public universities facing direct restrictions begin shifting parts of their programs to the basin specifically because RMBL's nonprofit posture is unrestricted. By 2033 this is a noticeable pattern. The marmot record continues; a generational observer transition is managed carefully through guest-scientist partnerships, with RMBL's archives and protocols holding the continuity. The phenology series continues. Tribal natural-resources partnerships produce a small number of co-authored studies that route into tribal water and land decisions — quieter work than the press-cycle science of the 2020s, but durable. The Conservancy District relationship continues to deliver basin-scale water analysis into local decisions. The translation function, narrowed to two or three durable channels, is doing real work. RMBL365 becomes recognized locally as the place where this kind of partnership actually happens.
The final phase is one of consolidation. The marmot study passes its 75-year mark in 2038 — a milestone met with a small gathering at Gothic rather than a press release. The phenology series approaches 65 years. By 2040 the basin still has its longest records intact, an outcome that looked uncertain in 2028. The political climate has not warmed, but RMBL has adapted to it. The institution is smaller than the 2025 plan imagined. The data team is the size it was in 2026 rather than the expanded team some had hoped for. But it functions. Guest scientists continue to come, drawn partly by the unrestricted posture and partly by the records. Tribal and water-district partnerships are now part of how RMBL describes itself, not adjuncts to it. The board, looking back, sees that protecting independence and the long records was the right wager. The scenario ends with RMBL quieter than it was in 2026, and more clearly itself.
If you are a basin scientist during this period, the texture is mixed. The long records you depend on are protected. The plots are maintained. The archives function. RMBL's data scientists and technicians are still there, smaller in number than you might have hoped but stable. What is harder: writing grants in a federal landscape that has narrowed, finding venues for translation work that does not get politicized, watching collaborators at federally-adjacent institutions face restrictions. What is unexpectedly easier: RMBL's nonprofit posture means no one at the institution tells you what you can and cannot ask. If your home institution is under pressure, the basin becomes a venue where you can still pursue the questions you came to science for. The tribal and water-district partnerships are real channels for translation that survive the period intact.
RMBL in 2040 is smaller than the 2025 plan imagined. The technical core is the size it was in 2026. RMBL365 operates year-round but at reduced scope. The campaign closed below the realistic floor. The institution carries scars from a decade in which environmental science was politically embattled. But it functions. The long records continue. The archives are intact. Guest scientists come, some of them drawn specifically because RMBL did not let restrictions follow them. Two or three deep partnerships — with tribal natural-resources offices and the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District — anchor the translation work. Staff feel the constraints, but they also feel that the institution stayed itself. The board, looking back, sees that the wager on independence and continuity was the right one.
A contribution to this campaign joins an effort to keep basin science possible during a politically narrowed decade. Your gift is part of protecting the longest records in the basin — the marmot study above Gothic, the meadow phenology series — and the nonprofit independence that lets guest scientists pursue questions without restriction. It is part of sustaining the partnerships with tribal nations and water districts that translate basin science into decisions when federal channels do not. This scenario does not promise a flourishing institution; it asks you to be part of preserving what most needs preserving. A general reader will recognize this as the work of keeping a scientific community intact through hard conditions. A donor will recognize it as the choice to defend the conditions for inquiry rather than expand the reach of a moment.
This scenario assumes a durable shift in public attitudes against environmental science across multiple administrations and across both federal and state levels. That assumption is consequential and contestable. Political conditions could moderate sooner than the scenario imagines, in which case RMBL would emerge from the period under-built relative to what it could have done with bolder investment during a more favorable window. The scenario assumes tribal natural-resources offices and the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District remain durable partners through the period; this depends on those institutions' own political and operational conditions, which the scenario treats as more stable than they may prove to be.
A structural blind spot: the scenario imagines RMBL's nonprofit independence as a clean asset, but in a sufficiently hostile political climate, nonprofit status itself could come under pressure — through changes in tax treatment, through grant-making restrictions, through pressure on universities whose scientists are RMBL's primary community. The scenario does not model that pressure deeply.
A scenario-specific failure mode: the bet on quiet positioning could backfire if it leaves RMBL's role unrecognized when conditions change and broader allies are needed. Choosing word-of-mouth over public statement protects the institution in the constrained period but may leave it without the public constituency it would benefit from in a recovery. The scenario takes the protective choice; it does not claim that was clearly the only right one.
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Speculative. Lower resolution than the primary horizon.
Beyond 2040, the further future is hazier and depends on conditions the scenario cannot resolve. If the political climate moderates in the 2040s, RMBL's preserved independence and intact records become the foundation for a renewed phase — guest scientists return at higher volume, the integrated observatory work that was deferred becomes possible again, AI synthesis of the now-much-longer records becomes a real program. The marmot study approaches its centennial in 2063 inside a basin where the science could again be ambitious. If conditions do not moderate, RMBL settles into a steadier version of the constrained shape — smaller, partnership-anchored, record-stewarding, recognizably itself. Either way, the wager the campaign made during the constrained decade — that institutional independence and long-record continuity were the assets most worth defending — remains visible in what RMBL is able to do.
In 2040, RMBL matters because its nonprofit independence, defended through a politically constrained decade, made it one of the few venues where unrestricted climate-ecology inquiry continued at sustained scale. Guest scientists from institutions facing state or federal restrictions have shifted parts of their programs to the basin specifically because RMBL's institutional posture is unrestricted. The partnerships with tribal nations and water districts that remained viable through the period have become a durable model — basin science that is politically viable because it serves community partners with sovereignty of their own. RMBL is quieter than it was in 2026. It is also more clearly itself. The basic-research foundation continued. The translation function survived, narrowed, by aligning with partners whose authority did not depend on federal continuity.