Knowledge graph centered on Boechera-Lythrum phenological evolution model (Brassicaceae) with 26 nodes and 99 connections. Top connected: Marmota flaviventris, Ligusticum porteri, phenological mismatch, Asteraceae, Rushes.
Method synopsis
A resource allocation model combining growth rate, flowering time, and optimal control theory to predict phenological shifts under climate change. The model incorporates species-specific climate thresholds, genetic constraints, and ecological factors to predict evolutionary responses.
Synthesized from method descriptions across 1 paper using this protocol.
The growing season is defined as the period when air temperature and soil moisture are above minimum thresholds necessary for growth, differing for each species. For Boechera stricta: 8°C temperature and 10% volumetric water content thresholds. For Lythrum salicaria: 12°C temperature and 18% volumetric water content thresholds.
Quantities: Temperature thresholds: B. stricta 8°C, L. salicaria 12°C; Moisture thresholds: B. stricta 10% VWC, L. salicaria 18% VWCDuration: Growing season length varies by climate scenario and altitudeConditions: Temperature and moisture modeled separately for each habitat using sine functions to account for seasonal fluctuations
Equipment: Climate modeling functions
Model exponential vegetative growth
Growth follows an exponential curve with base vegetative growth rate (r) from initial seed size until threshold size at reproduction. The time until reproductive maturity determines vegetative size, with size remaining constant after reproduction begins and seed production increasing following a saturation curve with upper limit θ.
Quantities: Growth rate r varies by species, initial seed size V₀, threshold size at reproduction variesDuration: From germination until threshold reproductive size reachedConditions: Growth only occurs when temperature and moisture above species thresholds
Temperature increases modeled up to 5°C above current levels, moisture decreases up to 40% of current levels. Climate effects tested across altitude gradients, with higher altitudes experiencing cooler temperatures and lower moisture typically not limiting growth throughout the season.
Quantities: Temperature increases: up to +5°C; Moisture decreases: up to -40%Duration: Applied across full growing seasons under different climate scenariosConditions: Scenarios range from cooler/wetter to hotter/drier climates
Equipment: Climate scenario models
Incorporate herbivory effects
Herbivory intensity (h) modeled as proportional loss of vegetative and reproductive growth, ranging from 0 (no herbivory) to 1 (complete herbivory). Two models tested: ecological release model (reduced herbivory in invasive populations) and relaxed constraint model (allowing small increase in relative growth rate).
Quantities: Herbivory intensity h: 0-1 scale; Growth rate modifications under relaxed constraintsDuration: Applied throughout growing seasonConditions: Higher herbivory assumed for native species, lower for introduced populations