Monte Carlo carbon cycle uncertainty quantification

Knowledge graph centered on Monte Carlo carbon cycle uncertainty quantification with 5 nodes and 7 connections. Top connected: Carbon Cycle Uncertainty Increases Climate Change , Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBiS), John Harte, P. Higgins.

Method synopsis

Monte Carlo approach to quantify uncertainty in terrestrial carbon cycle responses and determine plausible ranges of human emissions compatible with specific atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Incorporates multiple independent uncertainty sources including ocean uptake, CO2 fertilization, and plant migration rates.

Synthesized from method descriptions across 1 paper using this protocol.

Procedure from a recent peer-reviewed implementation

Steps below were extracted from the most recent peer-reviewed implementation of this protocol in the corpus — Carbon Cycle Uncertainty Increases Climate Change Risks and Mitigation Challenges (2012), Journal of Climate. Implementations in other papers (listed below) may differ.

1. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis
   Performed Monte Carlo analysis to determine plausible net human emissions compatible with A1FI atmospheric CO2 concentrations of roughly 900 ppm by end of century. Assessed implications of four key sources of carbon cycle uncertainty: future ocean uptake (450 ± 150 Pg-C based on Friedlingstein et al. 2006), CO2 fertilization, rates of plant migration, and additional factors contributing to transient responses. All sources of uncertainty distributed uniformly in Monte Carlo analysis.
   Quantities: Ocean uptake uncertainty: 450 ± 150 Pg-C, target CO2 concentration: 900 ppmDuration: End of century projections (roughly 2080-2100 timeframe)Conditions: Uniform distribution of uncertainty sources across Monte Carlo simulations
   Equipment: Monte Carlo simulation framework

Typical Equipment

• Monte Carlo simulation framework

Output Measurements

• probability density functions of human emissions
• carbon cycle response uncertainty bounds

Papers Using This Protocol (1)

Places Where Used