Hiking up to the next plot…
Sarah C. Elmendorf,1* Gregory H. R. Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future Henry,1 Robert D. Hollister,2 Robert G. biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a Björk,3 Anne D. Bjorkman,1 Terry V. small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent Callaghan,4,5 Laura Siegwart Collier,6 site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term Elisabeth J. Cooper,7 Johannes H. C. Cornelissen,8 Thomas A. Day,9 change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years Anna Maria Fosaa,10 William A. Gould,11 duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient Járngerur Grétarsdóttir,12 John Harte,13 summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where Luise Hermanutz,6 David S. Hik,14 ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear Annika Hofgaard,15 Frith Jarrad,16 increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or Ingibjörg Svala Jónsdóttir,17 Frida Keuper,8 Kari Klanderud,18 Julia A. accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These Klein,19 Saewan Koh,14 Gaku Kudo,20 results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in Simone I. Lang,8 Val Loewen,21 vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation – and associated ecosystem Jeremy L. May,2 Joel Mercado,11 consequences – have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. Anders Michelsen,22 Ulf Molau,3 Isla H. Myers-Smith,14 Steven F. Oberbauer,23 Sara Pieper,24 Eric Post,25 Christian Rixen,26 Clare H. Robinson,27 Niels Martin Schmidt,28 Gaius R. Shaver,29 Anna Stenström,30 Anne Tolvanen,31 Ørjan Totland,18
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