Counting marmots…
Though most avalanche forecasting operations require recognizing and assessing patterns of avalanche activity at the scale of large valleys or drainages, such patterns have only been infrequently explored in the scientific literature. This work investigates avalanches in over 50 avalanche paths near Gothic, Colorado in an area of approximately 65 km, and looks at patterns of avalanche activity in the area related to the predominant free air wind direction leading up to the avalanches. The avalanche data for this work have been collected by one individual for over 30 years, while the avalanche path information comes from the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory and 500 mb and 700 mb wind data come from the NCEP reanalysis gridded data set. We classified wind into three categories: winds from south to west, from north to west and any winds blowing out of the east (north to south in the east direction). We utilize a GIS to visually display the frequency of avalanche activity in each path, as well as the proportion of avalanches in each path associated with specific wind directions prior to the avalanches. This analysis allows us to spatially represent the probability of avalanches occurring in each avalanche path for different wind directions, and provides a better understanding of the wind directions affecting natural avalanche activity around Gothic.
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